A latest Pentagon report on China’s military power, released just days ago, reveals that Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is projected to dramatically close – and in some cases surpass – the U.S. Navy’s dominance in critical naval domains by 2035.
Exclusive analysis of the 2025 China Military Power Report, obtained ahead of widespread dissemination, paints a picture of relentless Chinese naval expansion that could see the PLAN operating as many as nine aircraft carriers and up to 80 submarines by the mid-2030s.
Yet, experts caution that raw numbers do not equate to automatic supremacy, with the U.S. retaining decisive advantages in combat experience, technological sophistication, and a web of Indo-Pacific alliances.
This explosive assessment comes amid heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific, where China’s assertive maritime claims and rapid militarization have raised alarms in Washington and among allies.
The report highlights that while the PLAN already boasts the world’s largest navy by hull count – over 370 platforms excluding smaller patrol craft – its ambitions extend far beyond mere quantity. “China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has for decades marshaled resources, technology, and political will to achieve its vision of a world-class military,” the document states, highlighting an unprecedented carrier buildup and undersea advancements.
From Three to Nine in a Decade
At the heart of this naval revolution is China’s aircraft carrier program, long seen as the ultimate symbol of blue-water power projection. The U.S. Navy currently operates 11 nuclear-powered supercarriers – half the world’s total fleet of 22 – including 10 Nimitz-class vessels and the cutting-edge USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78).
These behemoths enable global power projection, with a legally mandated minimum of 11 carriers under Title 10 U.S. Code to ensure uninterrupted presence across oceans.However, delays in the Ford-class program are creating vulnerabilities.
The USS Nimitz, the fleet’s oldest carrier with over 50 years of service, is slated for retirement in May 2026. Its replacement, the USS John F. Kennedy (CVN-79), has been plagued by supply chain issues and technical challenges with advanced arresting gear and weapons elevators, pushing delivery to March 2027.
The follow-on USS Enterprise (CVN-80) faces even longer setbacks, now expected in the early 2030s. Budget documents reveal these slips could temporarily drop the U.S. fleet to 10 carriers, straining global deployments at a time of escalating threats.In stark contrast, China has commissioned its third carrier, the 80,000-ton Fujian (CV-18), in November 2025 – its first indigenously designed flattop equipped with electromagnetic catapults rivaling U.S. technology.
Attended by President Xi Jinping himself at a ceremony in Sanya, alongside the Shandong (CV-17), the Fujian marks a leap forward. Its projected air wing includes the stealthy J-35 fighter, J-15T jets, electronic warfare variants, Z-20 helicopters, KJ-600 early warning aircraft, and drones – capabilities that bring it closer to U.S. standards.
The Pentagon’s most alarming projection: China “aims to produce six aircraft carriers by 2035 for a total of nine.” This would nearly match the U.S. fleet’s size, though American carriers remain larger, nuclear-powered, and capable of sustaining higher sortie rates with more advanced air wings dominated by F-35C stealth fighters and E-2D Hawkeye radar planes. “The PLAN likely intends for Fujian’s future airwing to bolster naval aviation significantly,” the report notes, but acknowledges persistent gaps in pilot training and operational doctrine.
Until recently, analysts assumed China would need decades to rival U.S. carrier might. Now, the timeline has compressed to just one decade, fueled by shipyards churning out vessels at a pace unmatched globally.
China’s Undersea Force Poised to Dominate in Numbers
If carriers represent visible power, submarines embody stealthy menace – and here, China’s trajectory is even more concerning. The PLAN’s submarine fleet, already around 66 boats including nuclear and conventional types, is rapidly modernizing.
The U.S. operates 71 all-nuclear submarines: 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile boats (SSBNs), 4 guided missile submarines (SSGNs), and 53 attack submarines (SSNs).China lags in nuclear propulsion quality but compensates with quantity and innovation.
Only about 12 of its subs are nuclear-powered (6 SSBNs and 6 SSNs), with the remainder diesel-electric, many featuring air-independent propulsion (AIP) for quieter, longer submerged operations. Yet, Beijing’s experience dates to 1974, and recent models like the Type 093B and upcoming Type 095 are quieter, faster, and armed with vertical launch cruise missiles – capabilities analysts say now rival U.S. and Russian designs.
China has launched 7-8 Type 093B attack submarines in the past three years alone, plus over 15 total subs including conventional Type 039C variants.
The Pentagon projects the PLAN submarine force growing to 80 by 2035, with nearly 20 nuclear-powered – surpassing U.S. attack submarine numbers, which are expected to dip to the mid-50s amid retirement of older Los Angeles-class boats and slow Virginia-class production.U.S. plans call for the SSN force to drop to 47 by the late 2020s before gradual recovery, not reaching 66 until 2054. “China’s submarine technology is rapidly improving, and its production capacity is growing,” a 2024 CSIS analysis echoed, warning of an impending numerical edge in this decisive domain.
World’s Largest, But Quality Questions Remain
China already fields the planet’s largest maritime force, with approximately 234 missile- or torpedo-armed warships over 1,000 tons (some counts exceed 370 including auxiliaries), compared to the U.S. Navy’s 219-296 battle force ships.
This includes recent transfers of corvettes to the Coast Guard, bolstering gray-zone operations. Projections see the PLAN expanding to 395 ships by year-end 2025 and 435 by 2030.Yet, numbers tell only part of the story. U.S. ships generally displace more tonnage, pack denser vertical launch systems for missiles, and integrate superior sensors for network-centric warfare. American destroyers like the Arleigh Burke-class outgun counterparts in range and lethality.
Why Numbers Alone Won’t Guarantee Dominance
Does this mean automatic PLAN dominance by 2035? Far from it, according to defense experts. “The U.S. Navy has vastly more combat experience and time at sea than the PLAN,” notes a recent CSIS paper. America’s blue-water tradition spans over two centuries, while China’s dates back less than three decades. U.S. sailors routinely operate in high-intensity environments, from counter-piracy to real-world conflicts – experience the PLAN largely lacks beyond limited Gulf of Aden deployments.
Alliances amplify this edge. In any Indo-Pacific conflict, the U.S. could call on Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, India, and Taiwan for bases, intelligence, and direct support – networks China cannot match amid regional distrust.Qualitative gaps persist: U.S. nuclear carriers and subs offer unlimited range and endurance; Chinese conventional carriers require more refueling, and their subs, while numerous, remain noisier on average. American F-35 integration provides unmatched situational awareness and strike precision.
Still, the PLAN’s rising ambitions are “definitely a cause of concern,” as one Pentagon official privately admitted. China’s shipbuilding capacity – 230 times U.S. tonnage output – ensures rapid attrition replacement in prolonged conflict, while dual-use yards benefit from commercial orders funding military tech.
A Wake-Up Call for Washington
As 2025 draws to a close, this Pentagon report serves as an urgent clarion call. China’s naval trajectory threatens to reshape Indo-Pacific balance, complicating U.S. deterrence over Taiwan and freedom of navigation.
While the U.S. holds experiential and allied advantages, complacency risks erosion.Lawmakers are already responding, with calls for accelerated shipbuilding, industrial base investment, and deeper ally integration like AUKUS submarine sharing. “Quantity has a quality all its own,” the report implicitly warns, echoing historical lessons.
In the decade ahead, the naval race will define great-power competition. America retains the tools to prevail – but only if it acts decisively.
Naorem Mohen is the Editor of Signpost News. Explore his views and opinion on X: @laimacha.
Naorem Mohen
View More PostsNaorem Mohen is the Editor of Signpost News. Explore his views and opinion on X: @laimacha.
