Gold Roars Past $4,000 as Investors Seek Shelter from Tariffs and Inflation

Gold is having its best year in decades, up more than 60% in 2025 and trading above $4,000 an ounce for the first time in history. The surge has turned heads from Wall Street trading floors to kitchen-table investors, but a sharp 10% drop in October left many wondering if the party is already over.It isn’t, according to one of the biggest names in the gold business.

VanEck, the 70-year-old asset manager that runs the $24 billion VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), published a strongly bullish outlook in November, arguing that gold still has plenty of room to run—potentially all the way to $5,000 an ounce by the end of the decade.“Gold was built for the shifting trends currently unfolding,” the firm’s analysts wrote, pointing to persistent inflation, aggressive central-bank buying, and a steady flow of money into the metal as a portfolio hedge.

As per MacroTrends, the numbers back up the excitement. After a flat 2022 and small losses in 2021, gold has posted four straight years of gains:

2025 YTD: +60.1%
2024: +27.2%
2023: +13.1%
2022: –0.2%
2021: –3.5%
2020: +24.4%

The latest leg higher began in the spring, when President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements reignited inflation fears. Higher import costs quickly fed through to consumer prices, forcing the Federal Reserve into an awkward corner: the economy is still growing, but the labor market is cooling fast and inflation is once again above target.

Gold, the classic inflation hedge, has been the biggest beneficiary. Central banks—led by China, India, and Turkey—have bought more than 900 tonnes this year, while exchange-traded funds have seen their strongest inflows since the pandemic.October’s sudden 10% correction, triggered when Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded less dovish than markets expected, shaved roughly $400 off the price in a matter of weeks and sparked a wave of nervous selling.

The metal has since recovered most of the loss as Treasury yields eased and the dollar softened.VanEck says the dip was healthy and predictable. “Prices don’t move up in a straight line,” Imaru Casanova, portfolio manager for the firm’s gold strategy, told reporters last week. She added that mining stocks, which lag spot gold during the early stages of a bull market, are only now starting to catch up—another classic sign that the rally has further to go.

Not everyone is convinced $5,000 is in the cards, but the chorus of bulls is growing louder. Goldman Sachs recently lifted its 2026 target to $4,500, while J.P. Morgan sees $4,000 by mid-next year.For now, gold remains the standout performer of 2025, outpacing stocks, bonds, and even bitcoin.

As one London-based commodities trader put it: “When tariffs, deficits, and de-dollarization are the daily headlines, people buy the one asset that’s worked for five thousand years.”Whether the rally ends with champagne or a hangover, few expect the yellow metal to fade quietly from the spotlight anytime soon.

Naorem Mohen

Naorem Mohen is the Editor of Signpost News. Explore his views and opinion on X: @laimacha.