With polling for the Assam Assembly elections just three days away on April 9, fresh conversations and direct inputs gathered from voters, local leaders, and party workers across the state point to a strong likelihood of a straight victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.
Multiple recent opinion polls align closely with the sentiment emerging on the ground. The latest Vote Vibe survey projects the NDA securing 87 to 97 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark.
The Congress-led INDIA bloc is expected to win only 26 to 36 seats, with the NDA commanding around 44% of the vote share against the opposition’s 36.7%.
An earlier pre-poll by the same agency had already estimated 80-90 seats for the ruling alliance. Complementing this, the IANS-Matrize Opinion Poll forecasts an even stronger performance: 96 to 98 seats for the NDA with a 43-44% vote share, leaving Congress and allies with 26-28 seats and roughly 39-40% votes.
These projections are not abstract; they reflect what people are openly sharing in markets, neighbourhoods, and political discussions right now.
Direct feedback from different parts of Assam consistently highlights Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma as the central figure driving support for the NDA. In the Vote Vibe surveys, 47-48% of respondents named him as their top choice for Chief Minister, a preference that has remained steady.
Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi receives support from around 37.7%, with many considering him only a second option (about 35%).
Party workers and ordinary citizens alike mention Himanta Biswa Sarma’s hands-on style of governance. Inputs from Guwahati and surrounding areas indicate appreciation for visible improvements in urban infrastructure, road connectivity, and a firmer stance on border-related issues.
In upper Assam districts, several voices point to better flood management efforts and welfare delivery as reasons for backing the incumbent. Even in pockets where criticism exists, Sarma’s name frequently comes up as the face of stability and decisive action.The ruling alliance currently holds around 86 seats, while Congress is down to roughly 22.
This incumbency, combined with Sarma’s personal popularity, appears to be translating into continued momentum rather than fatigue.
Conversations on the ground reveal a mix of practical concerns and lingering emotions. Unemployment and corruption are repeatedly flagged as top issues by many respondents. Young people in particular express worry over limited local job opportunities, pushing some toward out-migration.
The death of popular singer Zubeen Garg in Singapore last year continues to surface in discussions. According to one poll, 42.6% of voters believe the case could influence their decision.
The government’s formation of a Special Investigation Team and declaration of the case as murder have been noted, but demands for faster and more transparent progress remain strong in certain circles, especially among cultural enthusiasts and youth.
Opposition leaders have promised swift justice if elected, keeping the issue alive in public discourse.Despite the emotional weight of Zubeen Garg’s case, the broader feedback suggests that governance-related matters — development projects, law and order, and economic opportunities — are weighing more heavily for a larger section of voters at this stage.
Ground Pulse from Different Regions
Inputs from various corners of Assam show a divided but overall favourable tilt toward the NDA. In the Brahmaputra valley and urban centres, many express satisfaction with the direction of infrastructure push and central schemes reaching beneficiaries.
In some rural and tea garden areas, however, concerns over employment and prices persist, giving the opposition some talking points.
Lower Assam and minority-influenced belts still show pockets of support for Congress and its allies, where narratives around inclusivity and criticism of certain policies find resonance. However, the opposition’s challenge lies in converting this into actual seats, given the fragmented alliances and the first-past-the-post system.
Local BJP and NDA workers report disciplined campaign efforts, with seat-sharing finalised — BJP contesting the bulk of seats, alongside allies like the Asom Gana Parishad and Bodoland People’s Front.
While some sitting MLAs were dropped, large-scale internal discontent has not surfaced prominently in the information reaching us.Congress, projecting Gaurav Gogoi (who is contesting from Jorhat) as a key face, is focusing on themes of change, justice for Zubeen, and greater attention to unemployment.
However, ground-level inputs suggest the opposition is struggling to build a unified, statewide alternative that matches the ruling side’s organisational reach and incumbency advantage.
With results expected on May 4, the information gathered directly from across Assam in recent days reinforces the poll numbers: the NDA under Himanta Biswa Sarma holds a clear edge.
A victory in the range of 87-98 seats would mark another term for the current dispensation and further consolidate the BJP’s position in the Northeast.
Of course, the final three days of campaigning and actual voter turnout on April 9 could still bring shifts, especially if emotive issues gain sudden traction or if opposition mobilisation surprises in specific constituencies.
Elections in Assam have historically seen regional variations that polls sometimes miss.
As of now, the collective voice emerging from the ground — through direct conversations, local feedback, and consistent survey findings — suggests Assam’s electorate is leaning toward continuity and stability under the ruling NDA.
Signpost News continues to gather real-time inputs from constituencies across the state in the final run-up to polling.
Naorem Mohen is the Editor of Signpost News. Explore his views and opinion on X: @laimacha.
Naorem Mohen
View More PostsNaorem Mohen is the Editor of Signpost News. Explore his views and opinion on X: @laimacha.
