What Trump’s 2024 Victory Could Mean for AI Policy in the US

Last Updated on November 7, 2024 by SPN Editor

Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, his administration is poised to bring significant changes to federal AI policy when he takes office early next year. Among his priorities, Trump has announced plans to swiftly revoke President Biden’s October 2023 AI Executive Order. This shift could have significant effects on both the regulatory landscape and the pace of AI development in the U.S.

The next few years will be crucial for the direction of AI in the U.S., with the potential for rapid innovation tempered by regulatory uncertainty. For AI companies, the stakes are high: how the U.S. chooses to balance innovation with accountability will set the tone for AI development both domestically and globally.

The AI policy in the United States is dedicated to fostering the safe and ethical advancement of artificial intelligence technologies. This encompasses creating frameworks for AI governance, encouraging innovation, and addressing the societal impacts of AI. Key agencies, such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), are instrumental in developing guidelines and standards to ensure AI systems are dependable and secure.

The US AI policy also stresses the importance of transparency, accountability, and safeguarding civil liberties while promoting international cooperation to advance AI technology responsibly. As AI evolves, the U.S. government aims to strike a balance between innovation and regulatory measures to mitigate potential risks associated with AI deployment.

What Biden’s AI Executive Order Set Out to Accomplish

Under President Biden, the U.S. took a proactive approach to AI policy and regulation. His administration’s AI Executive Order in October 2023 aimed to establish safety, transparency, and accountability for AI systems, primarily through the creation of the U.S. AI Safety Institute (AISI). AISI’s role is to oversee AI development and ensure companies follow specific guidelines on model training, security, and vulnerability testing. Additionally, Biden’s order tasked the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) with developing AI safety standards to identify and address model flaws.

This executive order, however, has received criticism. Opponents, including key conservative voices like Representative Nancy Mace and Senator Ted Cruz, argue that these regulations risk stifling innovation. Cruz has expressed concern that such safety standards could even be used to restrict freedom of expression.

Trump’s Vision: Deregulation and “America First in AI”

Trump’s stance on AI policy appears to lean toward deregulation and fostering rapid innovation. He has signaled plans to dismantle Biden’s regulatory framework and to repeal the October 2023 executive order, which would effectively end the roles of both AISI and NIST in enforcing AI oversight. Advisors and supporters close to Trump advocate for policies that prioritize U.S. competitiveness, preferring a system with minimal safety constraints. This would mark a return to a less restrictive, more innovation-focused AI environment.

Moreover, Trump’s allies have expressed interest in large-scale “Manhattan Project”-like initiatives for advancing AI, especially in military applications. While concrete details on these plans are scarce, his administration could emphasize rapid advancements in defense-oriented AI without imposing stringent regulations on private AI development.

The Broader Effects of Trump’s Economic and Immigration Policies on AI

Trump’s broader economic policies may also indirectly impact the AI sector. For instance, his proposed 10% tariff on all imports and a more severe 60% tariff on Chinese imports could limit the tech industry’s access to crucial AI infrastructure, like GPUs and other hardware necessary for advanced AI training. These tariffs could make importing critical AI components costlier, potentially slowing the pace of development.

Additionally, Trump’s restrictive approach to H-1B visas may limit AI companies’ access to international talent, posing a challenge for firms that rely on highly skilled foreign professionals in AI and tech. This could, in turn, affect the U.S.’s position as a leading hub for AI innovation.

Elon Musk’s Potential Influence: A New Dynamic in AI Policy

Elon Musk, a major figure in the tech industry and AI space, has publicly backed Trump’s campaign. Musk’s companies—like his AI startup xAI, as well as Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink—could benefit from the deregulatory policies expected from the new administration. Musk’s political support may give him more influence in shaping AI policy, especially given his role in leading some of the most prominent AI-driven companies in the U.S.

If Musk’s preferences are reflected in the new administration’s policies, we might see an environment with fewer regulatory hurdles, aimed at speeding up AI development in commercial and scientific domains alike.

State-Level AI Policy: A Patchwork of Regulation?

If Trump moves forward with federal deregulation, states may step in to establish their own AI policy and regulations. States such as Tennessee, Colorado, and California have already enacted their own AI-related legislation. Tennessee, for example, recently introduced laws protecting against AI-driven voice cloning, and Colorado has created a tiered framework to oversee AI deployment within the state. California has also set guidelines for AI transparency and protection against misuse, including deepfake regulation.

If federal oversight is scaled back, these state-level initiatives may play a larger role in enforcing AI safety standards, creating a fragmented regulatory landscape that varies by region.

What to Expect from Trump’s AI Policy Era

While Trump has shared limited details on his AI plans, he has voiced concerns over potential risks of AI and its high energy demands. His administration may look to relax current regulations, opting for minimal interference in the private sector. Trump’s allies have suggested a commitment to “free speech and human flourishing” in AI, likely implying a more innovation-friendly environment with fewer restrictions.

There is also speculation about Trump’s support for defense-focused AI initiatives, which may see investment in advanced AI applications for national security. Although Trump’s past executive orders from his previous term emphasized civil liberties in AI use, it remains to be seen whether similar principles will guide his new policies in today’s AI-driven world.

As Trump prepares to take office, the U.S. AI policy may be on the brink of significant changes. While federal AI regulation could be scaled back, states and industry leaders like Elon Musk may play pivotal roles in shaping the future of AI oversight. In this new era, the relationship between government and technology could shift, with impacts that will ripple through the tech industry and beyond.